The CIO Quarterly - Q1 2026

Mark Stevens, CFA, CFP

President / Founder

VESTERAWEALTH

mstevens@vesterawealth.com

563-231-2530

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Key Updates on the Economy & Markets

The first quarter was eventful for markets. Stocks traded higher to start the year, with the S&P 500 posting a modest gain in January. However, the market traded lower in March due to escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and the Strait of Hormuz closure, which led to a spike in oil prices. The S&P 500 returned -4.3%, but despite the late-quarter volatility, there were bright spots. The average S&P 500 stock outperformed the broad index by nearly +5% as market leadership broadened, and manufacturing data showed signs of improvement. In this letter, we recap the key developments from Q1, discuss how higher oil prices impacted rate cut expectations, highlight how diversification benefited investors, and look ahead to Q2.

Higher Oil Prices Impact Rate Cut Expectations

Oil prices rose in Q1 as geopolitical tensions escalated over the course of the quarter. In January,

crude oil gained nearly +13% due to supply concerns related to Venezuelan output and Middle East tensions. Prices rose another +4% in February as geopolitical tensions continued to build, followed by a sharp escalation in March. The U.S.-Iran conflict and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint for roughly 20% of global oil flows, sent crude oil prices surging nearly +50% in a single month. The price of oil rose more than +70% in Q1, with Figure 1 showing oil trading at the highest level since mid-2022.

The combination of rising oil prices and the risk of renewed inflation pressure led to a shift in rate cut expectations. At the start of 2026, the market expected the Federal Reserve to cut rates two to three times by year end. However, the forecast changed as the market steadily priced out rate cuts during the quarter. Those rate cuts were completely removed by the end of the quarter, with the possibility of a rate hike being discussed as oil prices spiked in March.

Investors Benefited from Diversification in Q1

One of the quarter's most significant developments was the performance gap across different areas of the stock market. While the S&P 500 declined by -4.3%, diversified portfolios fared differently. Figure 2 compares three ways to measure the U.S. stock market. The S&P 500 weights companies by market value, meaning the largest companies have the most influence on the index's return. The equal-weight S&P 500 assigns the same weight to each company, making it a proxy for the average stock's return. The Russell 2000 tracks an index of small-cap stocks, and the Nasdaq 100 tracks an index of leading tech companies.

The chart shows a significant gap across company size. The Russell 2000 and equal-weight S&P 500 each gained nearly +1% in Q1, outperforming the S&P 500's -4.3% decline, an indication that smaller companies outperformed in Q1. The Nasdaq 100 returned -5.8% for the full quarter. Investors with diversified exposure across company sizes, styles, and geographies likely experienced a better quarter than the S&P 500 return suggests.

The result was a quarter in which market leadership shifted dramatically. The companies and sectors that led the market in recent years weren’t the ones that outperformed in Q1. The market rotation showed the benefit of diversification. It didn’t eliminate market volatility, but it helped manage it by spreading exposure across different areas of the market.

Manufacturing Data & Concerns of AI Disruption

Two competing themes stood out during the quarter, both of which contributed to the rotation. The first theme was related to manufacturing activity. The top section in Figure 3 graphs the ISM Manufacturing Index, which surveys purchasing managers at U.S. factories to gauge whether the sector is expanding or contracting. A reading above 50 signals expansion, while a reading below 50 signals contraction. After spending nearly a year below 50, the index crossed into expansion in February and held that level in March. The rise above 50 suggests the manufacturing sector, which has been a soft spot in the economy since 2022, was gaining traction before the conflict. Equity markets reflected that shift, with the Industrials sector setting a new all-time high in late February.

The second theme was related to AI. For the past two years, AI has been seen as a productivity tool to help existing companies do more with less. However, multiple product launches in January and February changed the way investors view AI. The market started to price AI as a potential replacement for entire categories of professional services, not just a tool to make companies more efficient.

The software industry was hit particularly hard and has declined nearly -30% from its peak last October, one of the largest non-recessionary drawdowns in over 30 years. The bottom chart in Figure 3 puts the decline in historical context alongside the other major software selloffs. The broader question of how AI will reshape professional services and the enterprise software industry is far from resolved, and its effects may continue to surface across the market as AI tools evolve.

Equity Market Recap – Looking Beyond the Index

The S&P 500 declined -4.3% in Q1, ending its three-quarter winning streak. The decline was concentrated in March, while January was modestly positive and February was flat. As discussed earlier, company size impacted returns. The largest companies, particularly those in the technology sector, drove the index-level decline. The Nasdaq, which has exposure to many of the leading mega-cap tech companies, declined nearly -6%. The sell-off weighed on growth stocks, which declined nearly -10%, while Value gained +2.1%. Value outperformed Growth in each month, a level of consistency that is notable regardless of the market environment. Small-cap stocks held up better despite the volatility, with the Russell 2000 Index gaining nearly +1%.

Sector performance reflected the quarter's key themes. Energy was the top-performing sector with a +38% return, benefiting from the sharp rise in oil prices. Materials, Utilities, and Consumer Staples each gained over +7.5%, with the Industrial and Real Estate sectors also trading higher. In contrast, Financials, Consumer Discretionary, and Technology each declined over -9%. The gap between the top and bottom sectors was wide, with over 45% separating Energy and Financials. Six of the eleven S&P 500 sectors outperformed the broad index, a sharp contrast to recent years when a few sectors drove the S&P 500's gains.

Shifting focus outside the U.S., international outperformed for a second consecutive quarter. International equities finished the quarter with a gain of nearly +1%, while the S&P 500 fell -4.3%, a 5% gap. International’s outperformance was concentrated in January and February, while March was more challenging as international stocks declined alongside U.S. stocks. Emerging markets returned -0.1% for the full quarter, with relative strength in Latin America tied to rising energy prices. Developed markets returned -1.1%, with Europe and Asia under pressure due to their reliance on energy imports from the Middle East.

Credit Recap – Bonds Navigate a Volatile Quarter

The bond market also experienced a volatile quarter

as Treasury yields reacted to the changing landscape. Figure 4 graphs the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield in Q1. Interest rates rose in January as the administration issued another round of tariff threats, while February and March were nearly mirror images. Yields fell sharply in February as concerns about AI disruption caused stocks to trade lower, followed by a sharp reversal higher in March as oil prices spiked and the probability of rate cuts declined. The 10-year yield ended the quarter near 4.32%, the highest since June 2025, after briefly touching 4.45% in late March. The 2-year yield ended near 3.79%, up nearly +0.35%. The rise in shorter-term yields reflected the shift in rate-cut expectations, as markets adjusted from pricing in rate cuts to the possibility that rates may remain at current levels for longer.

The rise in interest rates weighed on bond returns. The Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index was flat in Q1 as Treasury yields rose, after returning +1% or more in the prior four quarters. Corporate bonds modestly underperformed higher-quality bonds like U.S. Treasuries due to their credit risk exposure. Credit spreads, which measure the difference in yield between corporate and government bonds, widened during the quarter. The bond market is pricing in caution, but it’s not signaling stress.

2026 Outlook – What to Watch in Q2

The key development to watch heading into Q2 is the situation in the Middle East and its impact on oil prices. The Strait of Hormuz was still closed at quarter-end with negotiations ongoing. Progress toward a resolution would likely ease energy costs and reduce inflation pressures, giving the Federal Reserve more flexibility on interest rate policy. A prolonged disruption would give higher oil prices more time to work their way through to the economy, potentially affecting consumer spending and business investment while keeping inflation elevated. Higher oil prices contributed to the shift in rate cut expectations and how those readings come in will shape the outlook for interest rates and the broader economy.

While the market's decline in Q1 drew attention, it's worth stepping back to look at the bigger picture. Figure 5 shows the relationship between the S&P 500's price and its earnings over the past 26 years. The two have moved together with a 96% correlation. When earnings rise/fall, stock prices generally follow. What stands out about the current environment is that earnings estimates have continued to rise even as the S&P 500 has pulled back. Analysts still expect earnings growth in the coming quarters, and profit margins to remain healthy. The market's decline has been driven by uncertainty around oil prices, inflation, and Fed policy, not by a deterioration in the fundamentals that drive stock prices over time. That distinction is important for long-term investors.

The first quarter also reinforced the importance of portfolio diversification. The areas of the market that led over the past two years underperformed in Q1. Investors with broad exposure across company sizes, investment styles, sectors, and geographies generally experienced a more moderate decline than the S&P 500. Staying invested through periods of market volatility, maintaining portfolio diversification, and keeping a long-term perspective remains one of the most effective approaches for building wealth.

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